Recession Probability 2024 Lexus. The conference board predicts a 96 percent likelihood of a recession in the us within the next 12 months, based on our probability model. In july, the federal reserve staff announced that they were no longer.

The conference board predicts a 96 percent likelihood of a recession in the us within the next 12 months, based on our probability model. This is higher than the long term average of 14.85%.